The central goal in climate protection is to stop the further warming of the Earth. To achieve this, climate neutrality must be attained. Effective and acceptable climate protection measures should be adjusted in type and scope to the economic systems of individual countries. As a success indicator, radiative forcing is used to evaluate the long-term energy balance of the atmosphere (unit: watt per m²). Check the actual effects of your reduction plans in the atmosphere here.

The tool enables you to calculate radiative forcing (RF) using the currently established scientific methods. Select a dataset from the predefined models. Add your future reduction pathways and calculate the overall model. You will receive information on the status of climate neutrality and the impact distance until the end of your forecast. The radiative forcing footprint per capita indicates the national urgency for action.

The offered models have been published by scientific institutions. You can access the original source via the respective link. After selecting a model, the list of datasets will open. Choose the dataset you want to use for the calculation.

1. Using the Load a Different Dataset button, you can restart the calculation to select a different dataset.
2. Using the I Want to Upload My Own Emissions Dataset button, you can analyze your own data. For this, you need to create an access link and then upload the data to the server.

Study the charts of historical emission quantities in megatons (MT) and create a future forcast for developments up to the year 2050 or 2100. Future emissions must be stated as a percentage of last year's emission. We support you with the following methods:

1. Frozen: Assumes that maintaining current emission levels would already be a challenge. Choose this method if there has been a significant increase in emissions in the last part of the curve.
2. Linear: The curve's development over the past 20 years is approximated using a linear function, and this trend is projected into the future. Choose this option if a particular greenhouse gas has shown a long-term trend.
3. Symmetrical: Projects for the target year (e.g., 2050) the value that symmetrically mirrors the past value from the current year. For example, for the year 2025, the symmetric year from 2050 is 2000; for 2100, it is 1950. Choose this method if the curves suggest a symmetrical development.
4. 1990: Uses the year 1990 as the target year.
5. Manual: You can manually input any value of your choice.

The data from the selected dataset has been extended with your future projection and incorporated into the decomposition of the degradation dynamics as shown.

Greenhouse gases are not only emitted but are also broken down in the atmosphere or within the Earth's carbon cycle. The key factors influencing the warming impact of individual greenhouse gases are:

1. CO2 from fossil sources: This can only be absorbed by plants, soils, or the oceans, and even then, not completely. The residual "climate debt" accumulates year after year. This is a tragic aspect, as the climate debt—and with it, the global temperature—rises inexorably and cannot decrease again over infinitely long periods.
2. N2O and CH4: These gases are broken down according to a decay function. The mean lifetime of N2O is 126 years, while CH4 has a mean lifetime of 12 years. Although it takes time, these greenhouse gases are eventually fully decomposed.

For each emission amount of the long-term data ➂, the formulas for the degradation dynamics ➃ are applied and aggregated as individual layers. This creates a framework of quantities in megatonnes (MT), which, up to the present, corresponds to the change in the concentration of the individual greenhouse gases (ppm or ppp) on a global scale. The rising wave reaches its cutoff point when the emissions end. The long-lasting aftereffects are significant, especially for CO2, which, from a human perspective, leads to an almost infinite duration.

The illustration of the total loads combines the quantities of the previously individually presented greenhouse gases into a single representation. This illustration is solely intended to visualize the proportional amounts. CH4 and N2O represent only a fraction of the amount of CO2.

When infrared light from the sun strikes a molecule of a greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the molecules begin to vibrate in one or more directions depending on their molecular structure. These vibrations generate heat, which we measured in watts. The more complex a molecule is, the stronger the vibration, and the higher the resulting heat.

Greenhouse gases differ significantly in their heat generation per unit of quantity. Based on the common measurement unit in the atmosphere (ppm/ppp), the energy effect can be determined for the change in gas concentration by one unit. Interactions must be considered in this process. The energy per concentration can easily be converted into an effect per MT using the molar mass.

The energy effect (radiative efficiency), represented here in milliwatts (mW), is as follows for:

• Carbon dioxide (CO2): 0.00175 mW/MT
• Nitrous oxide (N2O): 0.42218 mW/MT
• Methane (CH4): 0.14571 mW/MT

More information are given in the Factsheet.

To calculate the radiative forcing (RF), which is absolutely necessary for assessing climate neutrality, it is now only required to multiply the total burdens (➄|➅) of the individual greenhouse gases by their radiative efficiency (➆).
The illustration shows the radiative forcing of each greenhouse gas as a sum, where the contribution of each gas is still clearly visible. Biogenic greenhouse gases often form a long-term baseline, while the effect of CO2 continuously increases.
If the direction of the top edge of the areas changes downward at any point, climate neutrality is reached. From this point onward, no additional contribution to global warming is made!

In the final step, the following analyses are conducted for each greenhouse gas:

• The curve of the radiative forcing of each greenhouse gas and the sum of all greenhouse gases
• The relative share of each greenhouse gas compared to the others.
• Footprint of the radiation drive based on population or land area share: Shows the ratio of national impacts to the global average. The higher the value above 1, the more urgent the need for action.
• Relative climate neutrality: Indicates a turning point in climate protection. Beyond this point, no additional warming occurs.
• Absolute climate neutrality: Beyond this point, the radiative forcing falls below the value from the reference year 1900. It can be assumed that the affected greenhouse gas no longer has any additional climate effect.
• Net effects so far (mWm²) since 1900: Shows the radiative forcing from the past.
• Projected changes until 2100 (mWm²) based on your forecasts: Shows the expected radiative forcing until 2100.
• Relative distance of radiative forcing until 2100 in %: Shows the share of the remaining total effects until 2100 in %.

The degree of climate neutrality achieved to date and the effects that will still occur by the end of the century depend on the strength of the reduction paths for emissions. The most important task for the future in climate protection is to realistically measure these pathways, as this involves planning and implementing production and consumption systems that are compatible with the majority. Each country is autonomous and responsible for these decisions. However, the need for action for which greenhouse gas can be determined in the context of the greenhouse gas footprint.

The national footprint in an international comparison is not a decision criterion for the design of realistic, national implementations, but it does indicate a country's responsibility for global climate protection.

Values exceeding 5 have been set to exactly 5 for better readability of the display.More information are given in the Factsheet.

Emissions data reflect the economy and technology of a specific point in time. Partial analysis over periods defines development trends. The trend of the last 20 years is graphically shown for individual greenhouse gases in ? . It is now used to align the need for action from ? with current behavior.

If significant action is required, the trend should already show slight or substantial decreases.

Values exceeding 5 (X-axis) or +/- 6.5 (Y-axis) have been set to exactly 5 or +/- 6.5 for better readability of the display.More information are given in the Factsheet.

Simulations with the Climate Protection Calculator teach: Only the end of fossil energy use marks the end of additional global warming. There are only two scenarios possible for the end of fossil energy: Either it is economically replaced by renewable energy, or the reserves have been depleted below the threshold for economical extraction. Interactions are highly likely.

The global data in the tool show: Countries with a high share of emissions have a weak trend of reduction, while countries with a low share have an increasing burden. The total emissions level remains neutral at best, which is insufficient to curb the temperature rise. Those who demand significantly more effort face a dilemma: both a too-rapid transition of emissions-heavy economies and the refusal of growth for still-low-emission economies will lead to a societal rejection of the global protection idea locally.

Tragic news: Defining warming limits as target values is pointless. In the future, any possible warming will eventually be reached. The only uncertain factor is the time span until then. It is like in our lives. Not the absolute goals, but the successes of the day count. This also applies to climate protection!

Viktor Frankl (1905-1997) calls the appropriate mindset for this tragic optimism. By accepting the inevitable, it opens up fields for solutions.

The long-term evaluation of radiative forcing is not concerned with a standardized comparison of greenhouse gases, but with their dynamics, thus returning to the original evaluation methods of the IPCC in Climate change: The IPCC scientific assessment (see Chapter 2, pages 55f) .